Since its inception, the military surplus collecting community has always had its ear to the ground for deals. For the better part of two centuries it was a fast track into the gun community in general with its main selling point being the low buy-in. Conflict creates a need for huge quantities of materiel; after the conflict is over the surplus is sold off in an effort to recoup costs, usually with economy of scale working in the consumer's favor. This cycle has been the case even all the way back to the Revolutionary War; Colonists fighting for their independence with the surplus arms from France and England. The days of Bannerman and Interarms may be over, but the surplus cycle keeps moving.
No matter how hard one tries, politics are firearms are inexorably intertwined. Guns have contributed to creating countries and overthrowing them; Mozambique even has an AKM on its flag. You don't create change with smoothies and good vibes; you need rifles and books. In an era of Identity Politics, the gun community as a whole can sometimes get caught up in "The Current Thing" a little too much. These periods of "The Current Thing" have come and gone multiple times in my life and countless times over the last 100 years. The main difference is that in the past these periods were much less impactful versus the last 40 years. The entire globe is interconnected with a live feed into every news source, everyone's opinions, and every snippet of hot take you can think of. This globalization of interconnectivity magnifies the effects of "The Current Thing" to extremes. What is the number one effect? Panic buying.
There are a few great examples of this effect - The Sandy Hook School shooting, the Pulse Nightclub shooting, the start of Operation Iraqi Freedom, the Russian Import Ban, and so on. But the biggest and second most recent in memory would have to be the Year 2020. People saw the Fire and Brimstone believing that the world as we knew it was coming to an end. All the stops got pulled out; lines were wrapped around buildings and into parking lots, 5.56 was going for close to $1/rnd, people were buying Hi Points for $400, and surplus caliber ammunition evaporated. This was all a direct result of panic buying. Everyone all at once decided that they immediately needed 18000 rounds of 9x19 and 45 Kimber Pro Carries along with 890000 primers. It's one thing if a few people get this inclination but it's a different ball game when almost the whole gun community, and a vast majority of outliers, get the same idea at the same time.
Most of the United States economy relies on "Just In Time" for its supply chain and logistics. This means that instead of having a warehouse with 1700 products on hand and in inventory, there may be only 100 pieces in inventory and the rest shipped to the warehouse when stock dwindles or demand comes up. While a great facet of LEAN manufacturing and retail, it can also create a massive bottle neck when an unusual amount of pressure is applied to the system. Panic buying is the perfect storm to tighten that bottle neck into a noose. People see the latest "Current Thing" and have a fear or panic response. This response may be driven by the idea that something they don't own yet will be banned, they don't have enough of something, or simple Fear Of Missing Out. The response makes them go to the retail outlet of their choice, buy as much of whatever they want as they possibly can, and return home satisfied. Now take that interaction and times it by 3.9 million (amount of NICS checks performed June 2020). Now store owners can't get stock, distributors can't get stock, and manufacturers are running full steam to try and catch up with demand. When stock does arrive back down the chain to the retailer, prices have risen due to several factors but mostly due to demand. By the time the retailer gets it on the shelf the price of a product might've gone from $10 to $35 and even farther up counting unscrupulous retailers trying to cash in on the fear. A perfect example of this was, and still is to an extent, primers. Many collectors in the milsurp community reload their own ammunition, either due to unavailability of factory loads or for accuracy. During the Year 2020 primers were panic bought en masse by all manner of people and prices moved accordingly. A brick of small pistol primers went from $30 to $120 overnight, with many people posting photos from gunshows where profiteers were trying to unload bricks for $200+. Not only does this keep prices insanely high but it also keeps people in the milsurp community from getting out to the range. Large rifle primers at the time of writing are still incredibly hard to find and pricey when available.
Even after the panic is over, prices remain high and usually for a period ranging from 6 - 18 months sometimes even longer. This is the supply chain trying to catch back up to operating under "Just In Time". It is essentially the reboot to the system after a hard reset. All of the stopping points along the way in the system need to have inventory in place to make it work. Once all of the stops are full the prices come back down assuming there aren't other factors at play. What the majority of people fail to understand is that their own stash counts as a stop on the supply chain in this equation! Keeping your own stash stocked with ammo from when prices are good keeps you in the green and on track. This also helps contribute to negating the effects of panic buying on a broader scale. The lower the demand for a product, the cheaper it is and the more it is available in the supply chain. I've interacted with hundreds, if not thousands, of people over my 15 years in the gun community that keep one box or less of ammunition in their own stash.
Just as the community as a whole was recovering from the Year 2020, a new "Current Thing" struck and the hard reset happened once again. For newcomers and long time collectors alike, this ebb and flow centered around fear gets incredibly frustrating. Out of 247 milsurp collectors surveyed in a poll, 191 of them responded that the cost of ammunition does directly effect how often they take any part of their collection to the range. Many respondents also cited that the sharp rise in reloading components has also hampered their range time. With the rise in knee-jerk reactions across the board, it would almost seem that the milsurp community is slowly being priced out of shooting.
It is extremely frustrating that the gun community uses fear to drive sales. In the Identity Politics era, the smallest event could be enough to trigger a fear marketing campaign. The most recent campaigns seem to be a combination of Lake City stopping sale of ammunition to civilians for the year, a war in the Middle East that has been at war for as long as I can personally remember, and everyone's perennial favorite - Election Season. If you only have one takeaway from this post make it this - keep your own stash stocked up at a pace you can afford when prices are good and don't let fear from Doom Scrolling get to you!
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